2022 Investment Performance

It’s that time at the end of the year when one normally has some quiet time to reflect and take stock. I usually take this time to write my yearly post on my investment performance, mostly for myself and for my sister , as a means to force myself to look at the scoreboard at least once a year. I want to prove (to myself at least) if I can keep beating the so called finance “experts” giving investing advice on Twitter and in the MSM, or at least those honest enough to post a long term public record of their own performance.

After last year’s stellar performance of 29.2% , the JSE ALSI Total Return (TR) index this year delivered a modest 4.4% return, while the price only ALSI index returned 0.9% (negative 0.9%). (Yes, don’t discount the importance of dividends, it matters, a lot ! ) Against this background and broad market comparable my sister will hopefully be happy with her 13.2% return for the year, outperforming the ALSI TR Index by 8.8%.

As can be seen in the table below, the last 5 years she enjoyed a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.5% vs the market’s 8.14%. In other words, she outperformed the SA market on average by more than 10% per year the last 5 years.

Her cumulative performance since 2008 as reflected in the graph below, is nearly double that of the market. The last 5 years her portfolio more than doubled in value, with a total return of 133% vs the 48% of the market, or put another way, 2.8 times better than the market. Long may it last !

Investing is one of those endeavors, where if you keep at it, don’t blow up and keep learning every day, you should be getting better every year. My goal and hope is that I’ll live long, and if I’m fortunate to live as long as legendary investors Charlie Munger or Warren Buffett, and still be as witty and smart as them today at their respective ages of 99 and 92, I will have won the lottery of life imo.

My own overall liquid investments net worth increased by c. 15% in 2022 across all strategies and accounts. My new aggressive portfolio which I started just more than 2 years ago, enjoyed a less robust but still satisfying performance this year, up 44% vs the c. 100% of last year, contributing meaningfully to my overall portfolio performance. The cumulative performance for the last 2 years is c. 200% as can be seen from the screenshot below.

2022 Short Term Aggressive Portfolio

Lastly, I wish all my family and friends a happy new year in 2023.

May we all live long, invest well and prosper !

2019 Investing Performance

Janine Portfolio Performance in 2019

Pleased, but slightly frustrating, is how I would describe my investment performance during the last year. I hope my sister is happy with the performance during 2019 of the part of her money that I have managed for her the last 12 years. Twelve years ago when I offered to do it, I suggested she keep half at Allan Gray which was the most well known investment manager in South Africa at that time with a great long term performance record. I was afraid then of being too presumptuous and would perhaps not be able to beat the index and the well known big asset managers over the long term. I thought it prudent that she not put all her eggs into one basket so to speak by backing an unknown investment plaasjapie (farmboy) .

Her portfolio enjoyed a 15.12% return in 2019 vs the 5.2% return of the Allan Gray Equity Fund or, in other words, 3 times the return of Allan Gray. The overall SA stock market as measured by the All Share Index (ALSI) increased by 8.24% in 2019.

I see many opportunities in the SA stock market currently and am excited and eager to make the best use of them in 2020. Here is to a great new investing year and prosperous 2020 to all !

2018 Investing Performance

My sister’s account performance

The SA stock market, as defined by the JSE FTSE All Share Index (ALSI) delivered a performance of -11.87 % for the 2018 calendar year as on Friday 28 December 2018, which was the JSE Broker Deal Accounting (BDA) month and year end for most stock broker client accounts.

I don’t manage money professionally for other’s, except my own and close relatives, like my dear sister Janine. I’ve managed to increase the value of her account by 29.81 % in 2018, for an outperformance of 41.68 % vs the market. The past 11 years her account has increased by 327 % vs the 81 % of the market, or 4 times better than the market averages. She is understandably very, very happy to say the least. Long may it last into the future.

Compounding is a truly a wonderful phenomenon, and the secrets are simple, IF you have the discipline to abide by them. Save, by living well within your means, invest, and finaly, live long. As Charlie Munger put’s it so well, ” All I Want To Know Is Where I’m Going To Die So I’ll Never Go There “. It’s simple, but no one is saying it’s easy !

Here is to a prosperous and happy New Year for everyone in 2019 !

10 Year Investing Performance

aandele_10jaar

A few years ago when I mentioned to a friend, who is also a well known professional assetmanager, that I manage the money of my sister as well, he exclaimed that I should not do such an irresponsible thing !  I told him at the time that I do not see any reason why not, as I was ( maybe a little bit naively ) confident that I could outperform the professionals and the indexes over time.

Ten years have now passed since I made that commitment to my sister, and the above graph is the result of my effort over that time.  Each R100 invested by her in her brokerage account have grown to R331-10 for a 12.72 % compound annual rate of return (CARR).  This compares to the R233 her money would have been worth had she invested all of it in the Allan Gray Equity Fund which was one of the top performing funds at that time, or the R119 had she invested in the RE:CM Equity Fund which was also touted as a “rock star” performer fund in the media at the time.  Had she been able to invest in the ALSI Index directly (without fees !), her money would have been worth R205 for a CARR of 7.47% .

I hope she is happy with this performance, as personally I think I could have done better, was it not for a few mistakes and lost opportunities along the way.  I have also never had her cash position under 30% at all times, which is very conservative, especially considering that I measure my performance against pure equity funds and indexes which tend to outperform cash returns considerably over a time horizon of 10 years.

Let’s see what the next 10 years bring.  I am excited for the future as I think I am just getting better, more knowledgeable, more experienced and more diversified with alternative strategies I have learned to implement.  It is all very hard work though,  but I am committed to stay humble, to keep reading , and learning from others .  I love doing this and there is nothing else I would rather do !

 

Happy new year and good luck in the markets !

Investing Performance update

Performance update

In most cases a picture tells more than words can.  However, it is sometimes insightfull to know the facts and story behind such picture.  This is the graph of the investment portfolio than I have managed (for free for now) for my sister the last 7 years.  She has always had her money invested with Allan Gray since many years ago when I advised her that I think they were some of the top money managers in SA at the time.  A few years back I said to her that I think I can do better, but did not have the confidence, or the verified track record yet,  to ask her to entrust all her investment money to me.  So I said she must devide all her savings, existing and future,  50/50 between AG Equity fund and her own share portfolio, which I would manage for her, in the same manner as I do my own funds.   She will own the investment account in her own name and have 100% access to it to see exactly what is going on and where the money is at all times.

Every year this time I write a short “report” for her on how her investments performed vs some of the well regarded professional money mangers in SA, as well as vs the Equity Indexes.  I always experience a little bit of anxiety beforehand, mainly because before I do the numbers, I don’t actually know how I have done, since I do not keep score throughout the year.  I hope I have not disappointed her up to now, and she has not fired me yet, so she must be happy.  I am only joking though, as my sister is the perfect “client” who never bothers me during the year regarding her investments,  which allow me the discretion to do things as I want, and as I do with my own money.

For 2014 her portfolio grew by 18.7 % .  The JSE ASLI-index was up by 7.6% and the TOP40-index by 6.5%, so an 11-12% outperformance.  I have to mention though that I don’t think I have ever gone below 30% cash levels the last few years and the avg cash position in her portfolio was probably around 40 – 50 %.  So my “benchmarks” is probably a stretch considering the 100% equity of the index and some of the Equity Unit trusts.   I think I am very conservative in nature and did not see too many “sure bets” in the market.

I also benchmark against 2 professional money managers whom I hold in high regard and have a lot of respect for, Allan Gray and Piet Viljoen of RE:CM.  The AG Equity fund was up 12.2 % in 2014 and the RE:CM Equity fund down 7.5 %.  Looking back at the last 7 years, her portfolio performance was more than double that of the indicies and the professional money managers.  So all in all I think a satisfactory outcome up to now.  My aim is to have a full 10 year period to evaluate against.  Lets see what 2015 holds.

Our Human MicroBiome

An exiting new science and medical field is fast gaining ground and attention. The research covers our understanding of the human microbiome and the relationship it has on our health. Some call it another organ within our body.

human microbiome small
For a nice interactive explanation, visit The Scientific American .

Various reports have surfaced about microbiome transplants that have cured diseases or illness that doctors have been unable to cure with normal SOC (standard of care) such as anti-biotic courses. These procedures are cheap and effective without the use of countless courses of very expensive anti-biotics. Some of these procedures are even done by patients themselves. There is the story of a patient, told by his doctor, who cured himself from chronic otitis externa in his one ear by transplanting ear wax from his healthy ear into his “sick” ear. Read the story here.

Another research report just published recently document how scientists have been able to prevent sinusitus infection in mice by having the mice sniff certain lactobacillus species which protected the surface of the sinus and evaded infection by the corynebacterium species. For a good interview with one of the researhers listen to the clip or read the transcrip here.

Of course, the father of modern medicine, Hippocrates (460-370 BC) have said more than 2000 years ago that “All diseases begin in the gut”. So this is certainly not a new concept, although it has been largely ignored in mainstream medicine in favour of drug treatment which is far more profitable ! With the internet becoming more and more a part of everyday life, more published information became available to ordinary people and doctors alike. The increased access to information about the research and findings of doctors and scientists in this field of the human microbiome spurred a renewed interest in understanding the role it plays in our everyday health and how possibly to cure some diseases.

There are many more diseases that are being cured by “transplanting” normal healthy microbiome from donors to those who are sick. The last few years “fecal transplantation ” have been used to cure diseases in the gut like C. Diff (Clostridium difficile), IBS , Ulcerative Colitis and Crohns . There may be many more that we would be able to cure in the future once we better understand what bacterial mismatches in our gut or elsewhere in our microbiome is out of balance.

Specifically in the case of C.diff infections, there is a doctor in Australia, Dr. Thomas Borody , who is achieving 95% success rates with curing C.diff with fecal transplants. He is also achieving success rates of above 50% with UC and Crohns at the CDD where he works. From wikipedia, At the CDD there were indications that FMT could benefit other conditions including ulcerative colitis,[26][27] autoimmune disorders,[28] neurological conditions,[5] obesity, metabolic syndrome and diabetes,[13] and Parkinson’s disease.[6]. While Dr. TJ Borody was experimenting with patients that were afflicted by both CDI and Parkinson’s disease, he realized that after fecal therapy the symptoms of Parkinson’s in his patients began to decrease; some to the point that the Parkinson’s could not be detected by other neurologists.

Recently, a team of scientists performed a transplant of synthetic “fecal matter” called “RePOOPulate,” into 2 patients using a colonoscopy, the same way a fecal transplant is performed. This synthetic matter is made in a “Robo-gut”, a lab-like system that mimics the conditions inside a human gut. The procedure was successful and both elderly women were symptom-free within three days and tested negative for C. diff six months later. This is a big breakthrough and point to more such procedures in the future to cure not only C.diff, but possibly many more other related bacterial diseases. To read an interesting article about the breakthrough, click here and for the scientific publication, click here .

I believe this new field of the human microbiome could be the next frontier of medical research where significant breakthroughs are going to be made in the next few years in finding cost effective cures for many of today’s popular diseases.

Another very good article to read : Economist article on human microbiome

Some more media articles on FMT :
http://seattletimes.com/html/health/2020149085_fecaltransplantxml.html

Portfolio Performance

5 year Performance

If I can’t beat the full time professional fund managers, and the market indicies, I should really be doing something else. This always was, and still is, my motivation for putting in the time and effort. Above is the 5 year performance of my sister’s share portfolio that I manage for her. In what was arguably one of the toughest 5 years in the market, which included the “Great Resession”, I managed to double the value of her portfolio and beat the performance of the stock indicies and some of the best fund managers by more than 3 times.

Hopefully I can repeat this performance the next 5 years and well beyond that as well. I feel I am getting better and learn more every day. Even after doing my own analysis and managing my own money for nearly 20 years now without the help of a stock broker, there is always something new to learn about different businesses and the people that manage them.

Compounding and Nutrition

To be able to enjoy one of the greatest wonders of the world, compound interest, you have to live long. As Charlie Munger have said, ” I only want to know where I am going to die, so I don’t have to go there ” . Or Warren Buffett, “When I die, I’d like them to remark that it’s the oldest looking corpse they have ever seen”

When my middle son was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in May 2012, his life, mine and our family’s changed forever. The past few months I have spent most of my time researching the subject of Diabetes and specifically nutrition. I have come to realise that nutrition is probably the most important factor in living a long healthy life. I have never before give too much thought to nutrition, except the dogma of conventional advice, “eat low fat, high carb diets “.

What I have learned in this time has brought me out of my hibernation of blogging. There is a message that needs to be told. The conventional wisdom is not working and the world population is getting more unhealthy as a consequence. This is bad for investments and bad for our health.

Jeremy Grantham on financial bubbles

James Montier, one of my favourite strategists and market commentators, formerly from SG, is now working for GMO.  Now that is very convenient for me, since I can now access two of my favourite commentators and strategist from one website! That is just a side comment though, since what I wanted to write about today, is the latest commentary from Jeremy Grantham in his quarterly letter for 1st Q 2010.  The link is here.

He has some excellent comments and discussion about the Graham and Dodd crowd and their investment strategy, which makes the read worthwhile on its own. But what has struck me, was their research into financial bubbles. His big point is the fact that ALL bubbles revert back to trend, as was the case for the previous 32! He makes special mention of the still existing UK and Australian housing bubbles and how they still defy their inevitable 40% decline back to trend because of artificial stimilus by their Governments.

This of course had me wondering where we in SA stood as regards to our housing market, and today I read an article where they discuss the housing bubble in the UK and Australia compared to the US. This led to an interactive chart from “The Economist” where you can chart the relative house price increases over time.

The interactive chart at the Economist can be viewed here. As you can see, if the UK and Australia house market are regarded as being in “bubble” territory, then I don’t know how they will define SA’s right at the top!

Stewards of Capital

If I have seen further than others it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants” ( Isaac Newton)

Dear fellow business owners

I’ve set myself a goal to learn as much as I can from successful investment-, as well as business managers as I could. It is a journey with no end destination and a life long dedication in order to be as successful in investing as I’ve set my goals to be.

In my quest to find honest managers, of money and businesses, I recently discovered Howard Marks. His memo’s to his clients over the years was just released recently on their website . His firm Oaktree Capital has an enviable record and he was also asked to write the foreword for one of the chapters in the newest edition of Security Analysis, by Graham and Dodd, the bible of Investment Analysis. For those interested, a very good interview with him can be read in the newest newsletter of Graham en Doddsville at the following link, http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/null/download?&exclusive=filemgr.download&file_id=7212104 .

In my reading of his past memo’s, I came upon the one he wrote in 2004, Hey, Steward ! . Here he discusses the breaking down of fiduciary duties of the mutual fund industry and how “Amassing assets under management became the [mutual fund] industry’s primary goal, and how their focus shifted from stewardship to salesmanship.” (Emphasis added). Then lastly he focuses on those fiduciary duties of directors and professional managers of public companies. The whole memo is an excellent read but it is this second part that I quote hereunder which is especially relevant in these days.

Enjoy !!

What Else?

I want to make it clear that just as I do not universally indict mutual fund executives and directors, I don’t think stewardship problems exist only in the mutual fund industry. Most of the shortcomings disclosed in the corporate scandals of 2001-02 – in Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia, HealthSouth and Tyco – stemmed from the failure of executives to act on behalf of the shareholders who own the companies, and from the
failure of directors to police the executives.

The examples are endless: excessive compensation, unwarranted expenditures, phony accounting, and transactions intended only to deceive or obfuscate. In general, executives forgot that they run companies for their owners and instead tried to turn them into personal piggybanks. Or they decided to eschew honest reporting in order to hype results and thus their own economics. Directors of these companies haven’t been accused of wrongdoing, just underachieving. They were too complacent and obliging, and thus asleep at the switch. As Warren Buffett says, “sadly ‘boardroom atmosphere’ almost invariably sedates their fiduciary genes.”

The fundamental questions regarding corporate directors and executives are the same as those I proposed earlier regarding mutual funds: How much ends up in the pockets of the company and its owners, and how much in the pockets of the stewards? What means are used to accomplish this “wealth transfer”? How much is disclosed, and how clearly?

A number of thought-provoking examples were discussed in the Wall Street Journal of December 29, under the headline “Many Companies Report Transactions With Top Officers; ‘Related Party’ Deals Disclosed By 300 Large Corporations; Potential for Conflict.” The article discussed not the headline-grabbing misdeeds of the scandal era, but matters that are routine at America’s largest corporations. Often called “related-party transactions,” they represent deals through which directors or executives receive benefits beyond their standard compensation. Of course, there’s only one possible source for this enrichment: the companies and their shareholders. The Journal and I draw no conclusion about whether these things are proper. But they certainly can serve as fodder for discussing the performance of stewards. Here are a few examples:

A company employs or has business ties with 17 relatives of senior officials.

An executive is reimbursed for making business trips on his airplane.

A company buys “financial advisory services” from a director’s company.

Directors receive hundreds of thousands of dollars in consulting fees, above and beyond their directors’ fees. The fees reward the director/consultants for supplying “general information” or “maintaining and enhancing the company’s strategic alignment.” In the latter case, the recipient happens to be the company’s second-biggest shareholder.

A lawyer serves on a corporate board, and the company gives legal work to his firm.

The son-in-law of a former board chairman runs a real estate joint venture involving the company, to which the company guarantees a minimum level of profitability.

A company sells an amusement park to its controlling shareholder, with the buyer paying half the purchase price in the form of passes to the amusement park he just bought.

The Journal put it succinctly. “All these deals present the risk of conflicts between a company official’s two roles: representative of the shareholder and individual seeking to get the best deal for himself.” They raise significant questions:

Are these deals negotiated at arm’s length? Are the terms the best the company can get?
Who negotiates on behalf of the shareholders? How vehemently?
Where a deal is proposed by a shareholder or shareholder/director with a dominant ownership position, who stands up for the minority shareholders?
How can we be sure director A won’t simply vote for director B’s excessive deal in exchange for director B returning the favor?

As I mentioned above, there has been no allegation – even in Enron, Tyco and Adelphia – of actual director impropriety. Rather, the questions surround the energy put into governance.

After working together for many years, directors develop congenial relationships with each other and with the executives. How strongly will they then fight to resist questionable transactions between the company and their colleagues?

Directors’ fees can run into the hundreds of thousands, perhaps with stock options and perks in addition. Will a director risk this package to fight for some faceless shareholders?

In short, can a director who serves at the pleasure of the chairman police the chairman and his other handpicked directors and executives? How can directors be guaranteed the independence that shareholders need them to have?

The industrial economy achieved great strides because of a number of advances, one of which was the separation of management from ownership (and the accompanying development of a class of professional managers). The caveat, of course, is that managers and directors must serve diligently as stewards, protecting the interests of the firm’s absentee owners. The system only works if the stewards – entrusted with responsibility on behalf of others – are up to the task.

The Bottom Line

As you prepare your estate plan, you count on fiduciaries – lawyers, accountants, executors and trustees – to ensure that your assets will be disposed of as you intend. Would you want one of those fiduciaries to buy assets directly from your estate? Rent office space to your estate? Employ his relatives to serve your estate, for additional fees? Enter into a joint venture with the company you left behind? You’d expect the stewards of your estate to be “purer than Caesar’s wife.” Even with motivations that are entirely honorable, it would be impossible for your fiduciaries to simultaneously represent themselves and your heirs on opposite sides of a transaction and still maintain both the fact and the appearance of fairness. Thus they must content themselves with the compensation they’ve been assigned by you or by law. They must resist the temptation to do business with your estate in a way that could benefit them further . . . and to possibly move a little from your heirs’ pockets to their own. We must expect no less from the stewards that we and our companies do business with every day.

In my memos I try to resist citing Oaktree as the paragon of virtue. But when we founded our company, we established an acid test that we routinely rely on to keep us on the right track. It was stated in our original brochure in 1995, and it has served us well ever since.

It is our fundamental operating principle that if all of our practices were to become known, there must be no one with grounds for complaint.
To put it more simply, we assume everything we do will show up on “page one” some day – that nothing will remain a secret. Will there be a negative reaction? Will anyone object?

It’s a simple test, but it seems every day that the newspapers describe someone whose actions could only have been premised on the assumption that no one – not media, shareholders, clients, auditors or regulators – would learn the truth.
Will directors approve of executives’ actions? Will shareholders feel that directors did their job correctly? Will clients conclude that fiduciaries have put responsibility to them ahead of their own interests? We think the standards for stewards’ behavior are pretty clear cut, which means making these assessments shouldn’t be that hard.

March 16, 2004
Howard Marks